Short interest history — GlobalFoundries
Period: 2025-04-15 to 2026-04-15 ✓ (verified primary, internal
companies/gfs/data/STOCK_SHORT_INTEREST.json)As of: 2026-04-29 (latest data point: 2026-04-15)
Data source: FINRA short-interest settlement data (bi-weekly cycle); refreshed by
scripts/update_finra.py✓
Executive summary
GFS short interest expanded dramatically during 2025 H2 — from approximately 9.0M shares (10.8% of float) in late April 2025 to a peak of 17.26M shares (20.8% of float) on 2026-03-31, the highest reading in the 12-month observation window. As of the most recent settlement (2026-04-15), short interest is 12.36M shares (14.89% of float, days-to-cover 4.93 days) — moderate covering off the March peak as the share price rallied through April 2026.
The expansion-then-modest-coverage pattern is consistent with:
- Building short conviction through 2025 Q3-Q4 as Smart Mobile compression dominated the narrative
- Peak short pressure on the FY25 20-F filing day (2026-02-27 / Q1 2026 settlement period)
- Modest covering through Q1 2026 as the Q4’25 margin-expansion print + buyback authorization shifted the bear-thesis ground
- Multi-quarter elevated baseline sustained at 12-15% of float throughout the period — reflecting structural short conviction tied to (a) Smart Mobile cycle, (b) Mubadala selldown overhang, (c) ICFR material-weakness risk, (d) China geopolitical exposure
Caveat on ”% of float”: FINRA / aggregator data computes ”% of float” against the broader publicly tradable share count. With Mubadala holding 81% (450M shares) and FMR holding 10% (55M shares), the “true tradable float” is ~50M shares. Recalculating short interest against true tradable float yields 24-30% short ratios at peak — a more accurate read of short-side concentration relative to actual available shares.
12-month short interest trajectory
| Settlement Date | Shares Short | % of Float | Days to Cover | Catalyst Context (analyst-traced ⚠) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-15 | 10,009,373 | 12.06% | 3.62 | Pre-recovery; cycle-trough sentiment |
| 2025-04-30 | 8,975,068 | 10.81% | 5.50 | Initial covering post-Q1 2025 print |
| 2025-05-15 | 9,035,734 | 10.89% | 5.23 | Modest re-build |
| 2025-05-30 | 9,415,323 | 11.34% | 6.93 | Sustained ~11% range |
| 2025-06-13 | 9,473,952 | 11.41% | 6.75 | |
| 2025-06-30 | 10,049,052 | 12.11% | 5.96 | Pre-Q2 print |
| 2025-07-15 | 10,067,477 | 12.13% | 5.96 | Q2 print pending |
| 2025-07-31 | 9,799,170 | 11.81% | 6.57 | Post-Q2 print modest covering |
| 2025-08-15 | 12,172,685 | 14.67% | 3.31 | Step-up: post Q2 6-K + cycle commentary |
| 2025-08-29 | 11,902,776 | 14.34% | 5.76 | Sustained |
| 2025-09-15 | 11,932,283 | 14.38% | 4.52 | Pre-Q3 print |
| 2025-09-30 | 14,146,666 | 17.04% | 3.22 | Build into Q3 print |
| 2025-10-15 | 13,836,598 | 16.67% | 4.25 | Around AMF acquisition close (Nov 14) |
| 2025-10-31 | 14,286,735 | 17.21% | 5.35 | |
| 2025-11-14 | 15,443,442 | 18.61% | 4.22 | Step-up: post AMF + InfiniLink close |
| 2025-11-28 | 15,167,667 | 18.27% | 6.66 | Sustained |
| 2025-12-15 | 15,841,393 | 19.09% | 5.18 | Continued build |
| 2025-12-31 | 10,701,981 | 12.89% | 1.46 | Year-end covering (~5M-share covering tax-loss / portfolio close) |
| 2026-01-15 | 10,050,668 | 12.11% | 2.85 | Pre-Q4 print |
| 2026-01-30 | 11,566,414 | 13.94% | 2.60 | Re-build into Q4 print |
| 2026-02-13 | 10,845,984 | 13.07% | 2.41 | Around 2026-02-11 Q4’25 print |
| 2026-02-27 | 10,352,766 | 12.47% | 3.75 | FY25 20-F filing day |
| 2026-03-13 | 11,840,116 | 14.27% | 2.54 | Pre-F-3ASR filing build |
| 2026-03-31 | 17,262,602 | 20.80% | 4.34 | PEAK: highest reading in 12 months — coincides with F-3ASR + Mubadala-selldown supply-overhang trade |
| 2026-04-15 | 12,358,219 | 14.89% | 4.93 | Modest covering off peak |
Thematic analysis
1. Short interest expansion phases
Three distinct short-build phases over the 12-month period:
| Phase | Period | Δ Short | Δ % | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Build #1: Cycle-trough → Q3 print | Apr 2025 – Sep 2025 | +4.1M | +41% | Smart Mobile compression narrative |
| Build #2: Q3 print → AMF/InfiniLink close | Sep 2025 – Dec 2025 | +1.7M | +12% | Acquisition-integration risk + Q4’24 anniversary |
| Build #3: F-3ASR filing → 20-F | Mar 2026 | +5.4M (+45% in 2 weeks) | — | Mubadala-selldown overhang risk |
The Build #3 phase is the most signal-rich: short interest jumped from 11.84M (2026-03-13) to 17.26M (2026-03-31) — a +5.4M share / +45% surge in just 2 weeks coinciding with the F-3ASR shelf registration on 2026-03-11. This is a textbook dilution-arbitrage trade: short sellers anticipated Mubadala would announce a secondary offering, and pre-positioned shorts to fade the anticipated post-secondary price weakness.
2. The peak-and-fade dynamic
The peak of 17.26M (2026-03-31) faded to 12.36M (2026-04-15) — a −4.9M share covering / −28% in 2 weeks. The covering coincided with:
- No Mubadala secondary actually announced (the F-3ASR remained as optionality, not a triggered tranche)
- Continued share-price strength through April (toward $65 mid-April)
- Q1 2026 print expectations pulling forward (anticipated May 2026 6-K)
Read. Short sellers moved early on the F-3ASR filing, then partially covered when no secondary materialized. Mubadala has effectively “armed” a structural short trade by filing the shelf without immediately exercising it — an interesting strategic posture. Going forward, each F-3ASR-driven short build will compress as Mubadala does NOT announce a secondary at successively higher share prices, providing mechanical short-cover tailwind.
3. Days-to-cover trajectory
Days-to-cover has cycled in the 1.0 – 7.0 range through the period — typical for a mid-cap with moderate average daily volume. Current 4.93 days indicates that a complete unwind of the 12.36M short position would require approximately one trading week of sustained net buying at average volume. Squeeze potential is moderate — not the 1-2 day potential of a true high-DTC microcap, but not the 0.1-day cake-walk of a deep-large-cap either.
4. Year-end covering pattern
The 2025-12-31 settlement showed a massive ~5M share covering (15.84M → 10.70M = -32% in 2 weeks). This is consistent with:
- Tax-loss harvesting mechanics (closing short positions to capture realized losses)
- Year-end book-flattening at hedge funds
- Calendar-driven covering rather than thesis change
January 2026 then saw partial re-build (10.05M → 11.57M = +15%) — confirming the year-end covering was technical, not structural.
Cross-checks for short-interest signal
| Signal | Direction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Absolute short shares 12.36M (current) | Moderate bearish | ✓ |
| Days-to-cover 4.9 days | Moderate squeeze potential — not extreme | ✓ |
| Short interest expanded 23% over 12 months (10.0M → 12.4M) | Net-bearish position over the period | ✓ |
| Peak (Mar 2026 17.26M) faded to 12.36M (April 2026) | Modest covering as F-3ASR fears didn’t materialize into actual selldown | ✓ |
| Borrow rate / cost-to-borrow | Not in the JSON; aggregator cross-check open ⚠ | ⚠ |
| Failure-to-deliver (FTD) data | Not collected ⚠ | ⚠ |
Comparison to peers
| Peer | Recent short interest (% of float) | Days-to-cover | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| GFS | 14.89% ✓ | 4.93 | Mubadala 81% compresses true tradable float |
| TSM | <2% ⚠ | <1 | Mega-cap; minimal short interest |
| UMC | ~3% ⚠ | ~2 | Liquid Taiwan-listed |
| SMIC | ~5% ⚠ | ~3 | China-listed; moderate short interest |
| Tower Semiconductor | ~7% ⚠ | ~4 | Pre-Intel deal terminated higher |
| MRVL | ~3-4% ◐ | ~2 | Liquid large-cap AI semis |
GFS short interest is structurally elevated relative to its mid/large-cap semis peer set — driven primarily by the small-float, controlled-company profile plus the Mubadala selldown overhang risk. It is roughly 3-5× the peer-set average at any given point.
Forward catalysts that would force short cover
- Mubadala does NOT announce a secondary offering on the F-3ASR shelf for 6+ months — short sellers progressively cover the dilution-arbitrage trade as it fails to materialize.
- Q1 2026 6-K (expected May 2026) delivers margin expansion above guide — confirms Q4’25 trend, undercuts cycle-bear narrative.
- AMITC tax credit disclosure quantifies the 35% credit benefit > consensus expectations.
- Major LWLG / Fotonix customer announcement (named hyperscaler tape-out at GF Fotonix) — would shift the bull/bear ratio meaningfully.
- ICFR remediation announcement in mid-2026 — partial remediation of the three-year material-weakness flag would reduce short-thesis ammunition.
Forward catalysts that would force additional shorting
- Mubadala does announce a secondary offering on the F-3ASR — short sellers extend trade with new ammunition.
- Q1 2026 6-K delivers below-guide margin or weak Auto/Comm-DC — undercuts the mix-shift thesis.
- Customer A (likely AMD) accelerates wafer-share-loss to TSMC trailing-edge — would kill ~16% of wafer revenue.
- CHIPS Act milestone delays — covenant-related disbursement delays signal capital-allocation tension.
Sources
- NASDAQ short-interest data (bi-weekly settlement cycle),
companies/gfs/data/STOCK_SHORT_INTEREST.json(25 settlements 2025-04-15 to 2026-04-15) — FINRA-derived, primary source. - GFS spot price snapshot at
companies/gfs/data/STOCK_PRICE_DATA.json— float and average-volume context.
Cross-references
- stock price history — price tape against which shorts have positioned
- share count dilution — float math underlying the % of float calc
- mubadala related party — Mubadala F-3ASR selldown risk
- capital returns — buyback authorization counter-current